Learn how and when to remove this template message, "How many counties are in the United States? Asingle county could have as few as 88 residents,like Kalawao County, Hawaii. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 51%-48% - 2008: Obama 52%-47%. We relaxed the constraint by introducing the concept of a swing county, i.e. We have looked at every imaginable scenario to build a case for the Democrat party winning the 2020 election based upon how our trusted counties voted. For instance, Washington County, Maine the median bellwether county in terms of its share thats non-Hispanic white is 89 percent non-Hispanic white, which is much higher than the overall U.S. population that identifies as such (60 percent). By Dasha Burns, Antonia Hylton, Shaquille Brewster and Benjy Sarlin. Of their nineteen bellwethers, only Essex County, Vermont can be considered as a political competitive county. Latest voter registration totals: Democrats: 116,093Republicans 89,644Unaffiliated: 86,703. For a minute in this campaign, it looked like it could be a fairly close race in Texas, even within 5 points. Shield icon by Freepik from flaticon.com. So we took 15 of the states where this election has been hotly waged and identified one county in each that has gone with the winner or closely reflected the statewide margin in each. Watauga has gone for the winner statewide in each of the last three presidential elections and three Senate races since 2008. On Dec. 1, formerAttorney General William Barr also told the Associated Pressthe U.S. Justice Department had uncovered no such evidence. Stanislaus County, California (county seat Modesto) - one miss since 1972 (in 2016). On Dec. 14, President-elect Joe Biden secured his victory after he received306 votes from the Electoral College, per USA TODAY. The question is just how big of a margin she can run up here -- where roughly two-thirds of the states presidential votes were cast in 2012 -- to offset Trumps victories across much of the rest of the state. The Bellwether County to Watch in Pennsylvania . Combined, they had more than twice the votes of Denver proper and 30 percent of all the votes statewide. Ryan Matsumoto is a contributing analyst for Inside Elections. As the country's demographics shift and the rural-urban divide becomes more pronounced, the chances appear slim. This year with Mr Trump winning the county handily, not only did Vigo County Republicans keep their seats, a "red tide" similar to what transpired in Ottawa and Valencia counties saw Republican members take positions such as county judge, treasurer, clerk and recorder. It has gone with the statewide winner in every presidential election since 2000. Republicans have a voter registration advantage here but in recent presidential elections, its had consistently tight margins: In 2012 Obama won it by less than 4,000 votes. Until this year. Pittsburghs Allegheny County, the second-most populous county in the state after Philadelphia, is heavily Democratic. Third, it lists the fractionof bellwether counties each candidate won Obama at 18 of 19, Trump at 18 of 19 and Biden at one of 19. In fact, according to David Wasserman of The Cook Political Report, just 303 counties were decided by single-digit margins in 2016, compared to 1,096 counties that fit that description in 1992. Find the answer by searching politico.com/2020-election/results. If you find this article meaningful and convincing, please share it far and wide. View our How You Can Help page, or contribute via Latest voter registration totals: Unaffiliated: 49,026Democrats: 40,563Republicans: 35,146. Yes, another Hillsborough! (Think about what it takes, and what is required for a county to always get the election right. Ultimately, of course, Trumps strong performance in these counties didnt matter because of Bidens gains in the more highly educated suburbs of Milwaukee, Grand Rapids and Philadelphia. More Than Half of U.S. Population in 4.6 Percent of Counties, Fact check: Clarifying the comparison between popular vote and counties won in the 2020 election, Bellwether Counties Nearly Wiped Out by 2020 Election, Americas bellwethers crumbled in aligning with Trump in 20. University of Denver, 2. The county also features a diverse array of industries, from dairy farms and small manufacturers to major health-care companies. (Independent parties will reduce the winning margin between the two major parties.) This website summarizes the major findings in the 1218 months following the Nov 2020 election. Allegheny (Pittsburgh) is also key for Democrats. To get an idea as to whether Clinton could win it, watch Tarrant County. While Clinton has family ties to the coal-producing region her father was born in neighboring Scranton mid-July polling from a GOP pollster suggests Trump is winning big here. Like Texas, Utah looks like it's receded from the battleground, so we don't include it in our 13 battlegrounds. Lets find a coin, and flip it. From 1980 through 2016, 19 of the nation's more than 3,000 counties voted for the eventual president in every election. Clinton has to hit that margin in this county where more than half a million people voted. Obama won comfortably here in 2008 but only squeaked to victory four years later. The trick, for Trump, is to hold down her winning percentage here in a county that has nearly a quarter of a million registered Republicans. Has No Presidential Candidate Won Iowa, Florida and Ohio and Still Lost? The Americans who almost always predict the president With a total turnout. 03:30. The probability is hard to comprehend, so lets figure it out for real. This was important for candidates since the presidential candidate's campaign would normally foot the bill. It almost became religious.". Published Nov. 8, 2016 at 5:30 a.m. The storied home of Reagan Democrats and the third most-populous county in the state, southeastern Michigans Macomb last went Republican at the presidential level in 2004. (From a purely random statistics perspective, there should only be 1 or 2 standing. But its not just demographic trends driving the loss of bellwether status. Just one Clallam County, Washington voted for President Joe Biden. In 2018, Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, carried it by 11 points . Warren and Henry Counties appear to be the least swingy of those counties from 2008 to 2012. In communities . But those states represent just 29, 18and six electoral votes, respectively. Other counties to watch: Wake, in the heart of the Research Triangle, used to be considered a swing county. there are signs that the progress he made there in 2016 winning the county by about 1.5 percentage points after Obama carried it by 16 points . The fact that there were 19 demonstrates the incredible predictive abilities of these counties.). Have information that relates to fraud in this election? Instead, you can Find the latest updates on our Telegram channel which has more recent updates. Trump, who needs to pick off one Democratic leaning state, added a rally here Sunday night. Valencia County is home to a string of towns along the banks of the Rio Grande river in an otherwise largely arid stretch of desert south of Albuquerque. That includes 10 elections, including Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2016. While Bill Clinton was in town recently to open up a Democratic campaign office, party leaders are skeptical they can win here with Hillary Clinton on the ticket. But it's also not unprecedented. And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. They are: Notice RANSOM, SARGENT, and MARSHALL in particular. We identified and analyzed the best of the best bellwether counties at predicting an election outcome, and examined their trends in 2020. Find Stephen on Twitter and Instagram, The Americans who almost always predict the president, China looks at reforms to deepen Xi's control, Historic ocean treaty agreed after decade of talks, Inside the enclave surrounded by pro-Russia forces, 'The nurses wanted me to feel guilty about my abortion, From Afghan TV fame to a US factory floor. . With such overwhelming Democrat support in 2008, one can only surmise that ALL these 25 counties would have switched back to the Democrat party in 2020. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 480,926Republicans, 323,870Unaffiliated: 229,298Others: 65,281. Stephen Starr is an Irish journalist and author who reported from the Middle East for a decade before moving to Ohio in 2018. Well, lets consider the percentage gap between the winning and losing party in these counties. 12. Still, the state's worth watching. running an event, collecting and distributing information, Canvassing: Alarming Results in Multiple States, Identify Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis, The Curious Case of the 2020 Voting Rate Blowouts, How to Predict Election Results Using Registration Data, The Counties Where Votes and Party Registrations Don't Align, Investigating the Large Democrat Vote Increases, USEIPs Election Fraud Data Analytics Guide, 2000 Mules: Video Evidence of Ballot Trafficking, Voting Machines Lacking EAC Accreditation, List of Legislators Supporting Election Audits, Forensic Analysis of Mesa County Machine Images, A Vote Trafficking Parable, by David K. Clements, Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis, View the County & Local Organizing Playbook, Find the latest updates on our Telegram channel, Bellwether counties are not just statistical curiosities, The odds of 21 (out of 22) of these counties getting it wrong is, We have identified and analyzed the best of the best bellwether counties at predicting an election outcome, and examined their trends in 2020. Especially since Biden received million more votes than Obama did in 2008. Explore the pages of this site and the links to further reports. These counties turned out to vote strongly for the Democrat party in 2008, so they are the most likely to swing back to the Democrat party in 2020. North Carolina (15 electoral votes) - Toss-up Bellwether: Watauga In the western mountains on the border with Tennessee, it's home to Boone, which includes Appalachian State. All Rights Reserved. There were 1.3 million voters, or a quarter of all the state's voters, in just eight counties in that stretch. Moving forward, it is entirely possible that there will be no single county that consistently indicates the results of a national election. Multiple factors, including higher turnout and population growth, contributed to the fact that both Biden and Trump totaledmore votes than Obama. Where Did All The Bellwether Counties Go? Here are the top 25 counties which voted over 60% for the Democrat party in 2008, and then voted Republican in 2016: There is no doubt these 25 counties heavily favor the Democrat party. Here's why. It's also worth noting that some voters "split their tickets" between parties voting for Biden but also for Republicans in Congress, for example. Republicans also have to do drive up their own turnout in big population areas like Charlotte, but also have to drive up margins in lots of medium-size population counties like Union (Charlotte suburb). If the Republican percentage in 2020 is less than in 2016, it would clearly indicate a change in sentiment away from the Republican party, towards the Democrat party. used to vote more like the country as a whole, huge gains with white voters without a college degree, just 303 counties were decided by single-digit margins in 2016, How The Federal Reserve Is The Shadow Branch Of The Government, Why Original Predictions About The War In Ukraine Were So Off. Not anymore. As with Valencia County, in the past bipartisanship wasn't unusual in Indiana's Vigo County. Copyright 2023 HotAir.com/Salem Media. Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 521,881Republicans: 248,934Unaffiliated: 66,775Other: 45,567. The pattern has become clear between the last two presidential elections and governor's race early results from rural counties show Republicans up, but Northern Virginia counties, especially Fairfax, have more than made up the difference. Ron Elving . But that's no longer the case. Since 1960, Democrats have won Rockingham County only three times. A caveat: because its black population is higher than the state average (21 percent versus 13 percent), the county has gone narrowly for Democrats even in 2004 and 2000 when George W. Bush won the state. Bellwether counties are already extremely rare, but some bellwether counties are better than others at highlighting a change in sentiment. Somehow we jumped from 22 to 1 county in one election cycle and we are supposed to believe that is normal? Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 105,724Republicans: 70,060Unaffiliated: 15,141Other: 6,079. Maricopa (home to Phoenix) is the most populous county in the state by far 60 percent of voters live here. 2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention), Latest voter registration totals:Unaffiliated: 112,113Democrats: 109,965Republicans: 100,540Libertarian: 3,009. Co., as its sometimes referred to, has gone more closely for the statewide winner than any other big county. Democrats Woodrow Wilson, John F. Kennedy, Bill Clinton and Grover Cleveland (twice) won elections while losing ground in the House, per The Atlantic. Salt Lake City elected its first lesbian mayor this year, and Obama actually won Salt Lake County by a few hundred votes in 2008. The county narrowly voted for Bush in 2000 but has gone Democratic in the three presidential elections since then, though never by more than 52 percent. Split-Ticket Voters Helped Biden, Republicans in Nebraska, Maine, Your California Privacy Rights/Privacy Policy. Clinton wouldn't mind having a win in Harris (Houston and its suburbs of over one million voters), Nueces (Corpus Christi) and Tarrant Ft. Worth/Arlington). In 1960, President John F. Kennedy lostall three states and won the White House, beating out future President Richard Nixon, according toSnopes. Considering how many counties there are in the USA (we h. "This is an added benefit for security and resilience," they wrote. The county is home to a huge diaspora of health care workers affiliated with the Cleveland Clinic, and other players in the areas huge medical cluster. (Needless to say that if the tables were reversed, we would hear no end of the significance of bellwether counties in the media.). Side note Could the Florida Keys tell us who wins? But since it's gotten so much attention this cycle with the possibility that independent Evan McMullin siphons off votes from Trump, we kept it in here. While Trump won every county in the state in the GOP primary, he posted his best result in Luzerne 77 percent. This fact check is available at IFCNs 2020 US Elections FactChat #Chatbot on WhatsApp. That is 19 counties still standing after 10 elections! What results did you discover? If Trump can't win back or cut into margins in places like Prince William, Fairfax and Loudon, he likely can't win the state. So, even though they got it wrong in 2020, it is still worth figuring out how much they got it wrong by. It's true that both Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2020 won in Florida, Ohio and Iowa. They are: Notice RANSOM, SARGENT, and MARSHALL in particular. Democrats have a registration advantage in Iowas most populous county, and they are looking to run up Clintons numbers here as best as they can to offset expected losses in more conservative parts of the state. It might be actually the best bellwether in the state, as it closely mirrored the statewide vote in both 2008 and 2012, but it has fewer voters than Jefferson, which we highlighted. Compiled by Si Williams, non-US resident, and other contributors. The table shows the number of counties that voted for the winning candidate since the 1988 election. Hillary Clinton speaks during a rally at the Abraham Lincoln High School on Jan. 31 in Des Moines, Iowa. This populous, longtime Republican county has shifted in the last two presidential elections, as demograpic change has swept the metro Atlanta area. In 132 years, no president has received more votes in his run for reelection and lost. Suggest an improvement, report an issue, Will That Last?]. Recently, though, social media users have shared a meme with statistics that they claim discredits his victory. GOP Chairman Dale Fellows noted that the population has been steadily aging in recent years. It's whiter and less Hispanic than the rest of the state, but it has a higher share of residents with college degrees. Take the time to ponder and realize that this is no mean feat! Please keep this in mind as you continue to read through our bellwether analysis. The exurban county has seen a surge in minority voters in fact, non-Hispanic whites only constitute 62 percent of the vote, and thats made the area more competitive. In the 1990s, he says, Democrats ran for many local county positions unopposed. He is based in San Francisco and has also written for NBC News and The Hill. With a total turnout of 78%, Donald Trump won Ottawa County by a margin of 61% to 38%, improving his 2016 return by four points. In at least three of the past four elections, county differed . However, its bellwether status is by no means guaranteed in future elections. (The highest value being 66.1%), When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there are 25 counties that have a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. Experts say that while traditional bellwether counties are whiter and less educated than the national average, there's no one element that unites them as political oracles. This is a fairly small county, but we couldn't resist the toll of this bellwether. (The highest value being again 66.1%). The divisions were everywhere. In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. During the campaign Mrs Day-Baker says that local Democrats organised a "Ridin' for Biden" parade of vehicles through parts of the county. Or, if you dont have enough time, how many of the top 10 switch counties, which overwhelmingly voted Democrat in 2008 (with a percentage Democrat vote over 58% ! Election night is going to be information overload. ), You can find the answers to the above questions yourself by searching this site: politico.com/2020-election/results Out of 3,141 counties, there were 22 counties that had successfully voted for the winning candidate in each and every election between 1988 and 2016 (included). [How The Frost Belt And Sun Belt Illustrate The Complexity Of Americas Urban-Rural Divide]. Dont simply gloss over this. Clinton is counting on running up big numbers in the city of Pittsburgh to offset any gains Trump may make in the suburbs, and in the more conservative surrounding southwestern Pennsylvania counties, including Westmoreland County. The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in. The meme compares information about former President Barack Obama in 2008 and President Donald Trump and Biden in 2020. It has a slightly higher Hispanic population than Jefferson County 19 percent, according to the Census which makes it an uphill challenge for Donald Trump. Hamilton is ringed by heavily Republican Butler, Warren and Clermont counties, and it shares a border with Indiana, which is giving hope to GOP officials who think Trumps running mate, Indiana Gov. Once you have found all the results and looked at the trends, remember, these counties are the best counties at predicting an election outcome! "This process allows for the identification and correction of any mistakes or errors.". Bellwether counties are important, and their significance should not be downplayed. The website FiveThirtyEight pointed out in 2021 that, in the 2016 election Trump won, opponent Hillary Clinton carried 16 of the 35 counties that had gone for the winner in every election from. The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in every presidential election from 1952 to 2016. North Carolina (15 electoral votes) - Toss-up. The Atlantic wonders why we're still arguing about masks. So, where are the bellwether counties? Trump, however, needs to drive up the score in Collin (Plano). Still, the key for Democrats is Salt Lake, which gave Obama more than half his statewide vote there. Whether or not these less diverse, industry-dependent communities can regain their bellwether status in four years' time remains to be seen. Ultimately, they are simply 19 counties and this time, 18 of them voted for the candidate who lost the election. This Gulf Coast county is home to Tampa and has gone with the statewide winner in every presidential election since 1960. Both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton need to shore up their bases here in a place where there are more unaffiliated voters than Republicans or Democrats and major party registration is at near parity. Due to health and time constraints of our original contributors and a lack of volunteers to replace them, we haven't been able to keep pace with the further reports and findings after May 2022, including the Nov 2022 Mid-Term Elections, during which, sadly, many of the same irregularities and potential fraud occurred. But when word got out, Trump supporters crashed it. That said, they will look to get out as many voters as they can here to help compensate for expected losses in other northern parts of the state. Here are the concepts we have established so far: This is just the beginning. A bellwether county that includes Canton, its part of a heavily blue collar region where Trumps message could resonate. Team up with others in your region, and help out by Lets introduce a new concept: the quality of prediction. Again, youll appreciate the results when you dig some of them up yourself. @ryanmatsumoto1, Donald Trump (1624 posts) But demographic change appears to have tipped the county slightly more in Democrats' direction. Obama won it with 53 percent of the vote while winning statewide by just 75,000 votes in 2012. Almost a quarter of Obama's votes in 2012 came out of Wayne County (Detroit), which is 41 percent black. Hillary Clinton (578) What science tells us about the afterlife. BELLWETHER, a documentary web-series, will cover the 2016 presidential election through the eyes and experiences of voters in Terre Haute and Vigo County, the most consistently accurate "bellwether" in the nation. Weve been losing a lot of younger people to other areas of the country. It's something Joan Day-Baker, chair of Valencia County's Democratic Party, has witnessed first-hand. Trump remained very strong with white voters without a college degree in 2020, helping him win Iowa and Ohio by comfortable margins and remain competitive in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. 2020 Election (1210) HereIsTheEvidence.com and ElectionEvidence.com have compiled detailed databases of hundreds of items of election fraud evidence, by state. Wilkes-Barres Luzerne County is traditionally Democratic territory in northeastern Pennsylvania but its also an aging, working-class county where Trumps message is resonating. Oct. 28, 2021, 11:05 AM PDT. 2016 primary winners: Clinton, Cruz2012: Obama 53%, Romney 46%, Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 101,967Republicans: 75,145Unaffiliated:65,344Libertarian: 1,022. It went with the exact margin for Romney in 2012 statewide and McCain statewide in 2008. These former bellwether counties are much whiter and less college-educated than the country as a whole. Most of the statistics in the meme are true but they are not proof of voter fraud. While local Republican Party candidates enjoyed a bump in local media coverage for opening a new headquarters last summer, Democrats were facing vastly different circumstances. But county wins don't correlate with the popular vote, in part due to tremendousvariancein population size and density by county. He will need to cut into Clintons advantage here in North Carolinas second-most populous county since Clinton is likely to roll up the score in Democratic Mecklenburg County (Charlotte). Unfortunately, Github (now a Microsoft company) terminated this website's account on 13 Jan 2021 for "spreading misinformation", a violation of their terms, although no specific examples were given. These are places that are demographically strong for Republicans in the abstract, but might have had something that kept them closer to 50-50.". Demographically, the bellwether counties tended to be whiter, older, less . Weeks after Election Day, there have still been no discoveriesof widespread voter fraud. Wood County is a decent bellwether of the state: Mr. Trump carried it by eight points in 2016, matching his statewide margin. Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 258,050Unaffiliated: 228,638Republicans: 185,694Libertarian: 3,711. By Randy Yeip and Stuart A. Thompson. It voted twice for Bush and twice for Obama. Trump won 18 of the 19. Nobody forgot about politics.". Of the 19 counties that had a perfect record between 1980 and 2016, all but one voted to reelect President Donald Trump, who lost to Joe Biden in both the national popular vote and in nearly. The key is going to be what kind of floor McMullin has statewide and Trump's ceiling. An Inquiry of Bellwether Counties in US Presidential Elections, 1980-2016 Daniel Zimny-Schmitt1, Michael C. Harris2 1. Will Democrats Rally Behind President Biden In 2024? That Trump did so well in the remaining 19 bellwether counties in 2020 should come as no surprise, then. Wood County is a decent bellwether of the state: Mr. Trump carried it by eight points in 2016, matching his statewide margin. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-47% - 2008: Obama 55%-44%. This article is part of a series on Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis. Outstanding. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 51%-49% - 2008: Obama 50%-49%. (The highest value being 60.6%), When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there are 4 counties that have a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. Trumps local ties notwithstanding, Clinton is likely to run up her numbers here in the northernmost part of the South Florida region. White voters without a college degree used to vote more like the country as a whole, which helps explain why these counties maintained their bellwether status for a long time. From 1980 through 2016, there were 19 counties that consistently voted for the eventual president. Marcela Stewart speaks to a voter at an event to encourage minority voter turnout n Cutler Bay, Fla., on Sunday. Sitting at the same Kozy Corners diner table that president Barack Obama ate from when on his own re-election campaign in July 2012, Mr Brikmanis, a lawyer, believes local Democrats' failure to get votes is also linked to the broader economic decline being experienced by rural and rust belt communities across the Midwest. Republicans Ulysses S. Grant and William Howard Taft won a majority of the presidential popular vote but lost a handful of seats in House, too. David Hopkins, a political scientist at Boston College, toldthe Wall Street Journal that the failure of typical bellwether counties reflects"the overall trend that we are seeing toward greater geographic polarization.". Suburban Denvers Arapahoe and Jefferson counties have moved in tandem for the past four elections. Kyrsten Sinema's Odds Of Reelection Don't Look Great. Of these 35 counties, 10 of them consistently voted over 50% for the winning candidate since the year 2000. It went for Romney in 2012 (when he won it), but Obama in 2008 (when the Democrat did). Statewide results: 2012: Obama 50%-49% - 2008: Obama 51%-48%. We will only focus on the most recent elections to increase the pool of counties to analyze.).
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