But Republicans came out too, and independents voted for Democrats. 2021 CBS Interactive Inc. All Rights Reserved. And several more mainstream pollsters, who had gotten things so wrong before, enjoyed a triumphantly accurate cycle. In fact, Nate Silvers FiveThirtyEight ranked him the 2nd most accurate pollster in America after the 2020 election. 2024 Polls Show DeSantis Cant Easily Knock Out Trump. If that happens, Vice President-elect Kamala Harris would break any ties. pic.twitter.com/BZBVIIh0Gn. No, that's not reality," Cahaly joked. One, they say, 'I don't want to see a Democrat-controlled Senate.' Options, futures and futures options are not suitable for all investors. He runs the Trafalgar Group, and he says the same stealth voters that elected Donald Trump in 2016, are about to do it again in November, when they turn out in droves to elect Republicans all over the country in House and Senate races. And the fact is, you know, most candidates are shocked. The second-largest retail pharmacy chain wont buck Republican attorneys general. Evers won by three. Our polls in Ohio werent very far off. Cahaly expects the impact of the FBI raid to be noticeable in polling much quicker than it was after Dobbs, because "it was the [new rules] that followed the ruling, and the actual activity of a . He is a highly sought-after lecturer and public speaker on topics ranging from modern polling techniques, candidate training, campaign management and strategy, issue advocacy, and public relations. "A lot of things affect politics. Trafalgar Group's Robert Cahaly Explains His Polling Miss just asking queestions Nov. 17, 2022 The Pollster Who Predicted a Red Wave Explains Himself By Benjamin Hart, associate editor at. "GOP consultant arrested for illegal "robocalls" Nov. 2, 2010, Ed Kilgore, "Theres Still No Evidence Trump Voters Are Particularly Shy", "Four Problems With 2016 Trump Polling That Could Play Out Again in 2020,", Last edited on 23 December 2022, at 05:42, "The One Pollster in America Who is Sure Trump is Going to Win", "The One Pollster in America Who Is Sure Trump Is Going to Win", "Trafalgar's Missed a Lot in 2018 and 2020", "It's important to ask why 2020 polls were off. Jamie Reeds shocking account of a clinic mistreating children went viral. Mutual Fund and ETF data provided by Refinitiv Lipper. ", The Trafalgar Group's polling methods: "You know, our premise is people lie, people lie to their doctor, they lie to their lawyer, they lie to their priest and all of a sudden they become Honest Abe when they take a poll? However, if either or both incumbents win, Republican Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky will remain majority leader and Biden's incoming administration will likely face more difficulty in moving his legislative agenda forward. Democrats are too honest to do that. Robert Cahaly's polls have Arizona, Michigan and Florida in the president's column. Real Clear Politicsranked Trafalgar Group #1for accuracy among multi-state pollsters in the 2020 cycle. If you do this year in and year out and its always bad? The city threw out a Democratic mayor for the first time in decades. - You mentioned last time you want to be right more than anything else.Yeah. Click here to claim your free digital subscription. Im a Cowboys fan, and I dont quit cheering for the Cowboys when they had a bad season. Members get access to early picks and exclusive content. Meanwhile, Cahaly said Republicans are concerned about the possibility of a Democrat-controlled Congress and executive branch if both Republican incumbents lose in the January 5 runoffs. In 2022, the companys polls once again showed a picture of Republican strength, helping create a widespread impression that a red wave was about to crest. Facebook. The subsequent decision of Cahaly v. LaRosa found the anti-robocall statute was a content-based restriction on speech and therefore unconstitutional, which defended the right of Cahaly to make robocalls. March 25, 2023, Atlanta, GA Investment information provided may not be appropriate for all investors, and is provided without respect to individual investor financial sophistication, financial situation, investing time horizon or risk tolerance. Before you place any more political bets, check out pollster Robert Cahaly of Trafalgar Groups explanation of why he beat his polling peers in the past two election cycles, how he nailed the Electoral College outcome in 2016 and why the polls are wrong again in 2020. ", Midterms: "We are a political lifetime away from midterms. We havent really seen anything that goes backward from any of the polls that have I have any respect for any of the polls that have decent error.. *Sorry, there was a problem signing you up. Password must be at least 8 characters and contain: As part of your account, youll receive occasional updates and offers from New York, which you can opt out of anytime. In the end, Trafalgar missed by a lot. We had two things happen. "I anticipate that this turnout will be significant for that reason.". FoxNews Jesse Watters concluded the folks at Trafalgar had a great yearafter analyzing multiple races. Daily news about the politics, business, and technology shaping our world. Mike Pences 2024 Strategy Totally Depends on Iowa Evangelicals. "There were people I had friends that were actually working for him who didn't put a sticker on their car because of where they parked at night. George Santoss Nasty Twitter Battle With Fellow New York Republicans. [13] Cahaly denied any wrongdoing, stating "It is sad and disappointing that in this charged election cycle full of last minute surprise attacks that Democrat Incumbents and power brokers are leveraging all of their influence to create a last minute salacious headline. And a linguist named Emily M. Bender is very worried what will happen when we forget this. [1][8][9][10][11] Starting as a child, he volunteered on various political campaigns, before eventually founding his own political consulting firm in 1997. ", Join half a million readers enjoying Newsweek's free newsletters. In addition to denying Trump a second term in office, Biden also flipped Georgia to the Democrats for the first time since 1992. Our own polls show that that's wildly wrong. You will also notice our final generic ballot is tied for first and exactly what happened. Robert Cahaly . Both are facing tough campaigns from their Democratic challengers, who could change the balance of the power in the U.S. Senate if they are victorious. Market data provided by Factset. And thats all I said. But you're making money off of it.. because you gave them a fake poll.. All I need is Democrats turning out pic.twitter.com/U4ks2GBl5H. You havent heard much about Trafalgar, but they were right on the money on this Rush Limbaugh 11/9/16. The firm often asks participants to talk about how their neighbors feel about a certain issue or candidate, instead of themselves. The more people feel the poll was anonymous, the more honest they're going to be. So how do youI would say its less our methodology and more our turnout model. All rights reserved. - Robert Cahaly On Republican Surge In The Polls Ahead Of The Midterms Oct 28, 2022 Robert Cahaly, Chief Pollster at the Trafalgar polling group joined the Guy Benson Show to break down his. We also spoke last time about how youve gotten some flak for transparency. As of late Thursday afternoon, the typically prolific Cahaly had not posted on Twitter since Election Day and, after serving as an election night analyst for the Daily Wire, he has not made any major media appearances. ", On the 2022 midterm elections, Cahaly said that while initial speculation is that Republicans could gain seats in the House and Senate, "we are a political lifetime away from midterms. Robert Cahaly, Chief pollster at The Trafalgar Group spoke with Fox News Radio's Guy Benson about where the 2020 race between President Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden stands in swing . You cant. ", "I know everything, you know, looks like just a Republican landslide, but a lot of things can happen," Cahaly said. Quotes displayed in real-time or delayed by at least 15 minutes. ", https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Robert_Cahaly&oldid=1129022086, Weighting opinion polls to account for a purported "shyness" among, This page was last edited on 23 December 2022, at 05:42. You have critiqued live-caller polls that some other places do, which are very time-consuming and expensive, because you said that people who answer those polls are not representative of the average voter. Trafalgar Group's Robert Cahaly joined Liz Collin by phone to discuss the results of a recent poll. These are two accepted concepts. Turns out he was super-duper wrong. "I like being right more than anything.". Seemed to me that it freaked people out, in part because media reported on it w/o much skepticism. Cahaly claimed that Trafalgar's polling methodology was more accurate than other polls because it utilized methods to increase the weighting of supposed "shy, pro-Trump" voters, which he argued to be underrepresented in most polls. And so forth.The thing is if you look at the last three weeks, nobody was right. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google "In this runoff, I think you have the Democrats feeling very confident, and I think they're excited," he said. So our methodology will not change, and well adjust our turnout model. Trafalgar Group founder Robert Cahaly told Newsweek during an interview last week that Democrats are excited to participate following President-elect Joe Biden's win in November. Cahaly observed that it's not unusual for people with power to have a more inflated sense of self than ordinary people. I can see thinking youd want to do something else. Yes, the generic ballot was more accurate. 2016-2022 All rights reserved. We're not playing that game. Trafalgar was also perhaps the only pollster to correctly call Michigan and Pennsylvania for Trump. Weekly Standard 11/21/16, Each of those [Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Florida RealClearPolitics] averages went a little toward Trump at the end thanks to GOP pollster Trafalgar Group. Washington Post 11/17/16, In Michigan and Pennsylvania, deep blue states the GOP candidate has not won in decades, polls showed the race tightening in the home stretch, but only one poll, from Trafalgar Group, showed Trump with the lead. The Hill 11/9/16, But theres another pollster here named Robert Cahaly, whos the CEO of a polling group called Trafalgar. And so, you know, I love that 'we're going to ask people what their income is, education level,.' And when people get really frustrated, you know, they're going to act out. The Biden administrations policy of blocking unvaccinated people from the country continues to make little sense. "People have real lives. Robert Cahaly is a surveyor who claims the Trafalgar Gathering which is an assessment surveying and study organization. Live Now All. You know, you see these generic ballots where they're willing to give the Republicans another chance and they're not confident in the Democrats because they don't really understand what's going on. Walgreens Wont Sell Abortion Pills in Red States Even Where Its Legal. Already a tastytrader? He has picked up media consideration in 2016 for foreseeing effectively that President Donald Trump would win in the conditions of Michigan and Pennsylvania. It is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation that any security, futures contract, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any person. At least 12 dead after winter storm slams South, Midwest, The Saturday Six: Dental device controversy, scientist's bug find and more, Indonesia fuel depot fire kills 18; more than a dozen missing, 3 children killed, 2 others wounded at Texas home, Man charged for alleged involvement in 2 transformer explosions, Nikki Haley slams potential GOP contenders, and Trump and George W. Bush, Duo of 81-year-old women plan to see the world in 80 days, Tom Sizemore, actor known for "Saving Private Ryan" and "Heat," dies at 61, Alex Murdaugh trial: What to know about the double murder case, Pollster Robert Cahaly on "The Takeout" 12/17/2021, Meet the "anti-woke" Republican presidential candidate: Vivek Ramaswamy, Jared Polis on Trump, 2024 and how to handle classified documents, Top Republican calls FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried a "world-class sociopath", House Financial Services chairman says U.S. won't default this year, Jordan and House Judiciary prepare to probe matters involving two presidents. Updated on: December 24, 2021 / 7:34 AM A comprehensive new government study concludes that the illness probably wasnt caused by foreign adversaries. You can argue that we didnt know what were doing. Neither one of those is in the top five. (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); Jeff Passan Explains New 2023 MLB Baseball Rule Changes, Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-TN): Fentanyl Epidemic Unique To America, Trey Gowdy Reacts To Alex Murdaugh Being Sentenced To Life In Prison For Double Murder, Gov. That was not something that would have happened with Romney or Bush or McCain. And in Pennsylvania's Senate race, Trafalgar's 2-point favorite, Mehmet Oz, ultimately lost by 4 points. Required fields are marked *. Were just not there yet. Just because I can't find somebody doesn't mean they're not going to vote.". And I'm like, 'You thought it was that high?'". Whatever it is, they're going to tell you it's better than it is. (RACE TIGHTENS, etc.) It's more important to ask what will happen next", https://www.wistv.com/story/13429729/gop-consultant-to-face-sled-arrest-for-illegal-robocalls/, "Pogo After Twelve | News | The Harvard Crimson", "GOP consultant arrested for illegal "robocalls", "Charges Against GOP Consultant Cahaly Dropped", "Fed Court rules law Cahaly charged under unconstitutional", "An Evaluation of 2016 Election Polls in the U.S. - AAPOR", https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/07/theres-still-no-evidence-trump-voters-are-particularly-shy.html, "Trafalgar Pollster Robert Cahaly Makes Baseless Claim: Trump Will Win Pennsylvania, But 'They' Will Steal It With Voter Fraud", "What's Going On With Trafalgar's Polls? The Republicans just did not strategize well. More than 2.1 million Georgians have voted early with one week remaining until the runoff elections, according to the nonpartisan website Georgia Votes. Robert Cahaly of The Trafalgar Group had predicted a Republican victory in 2016 after finding that Trump was leading in the key battleground states of Michigan and Pennsylvania. "The more anonymous people are, the more honest they are," he said. We are apparently today's target." But what we have found is there's agreement and it is almost bipartisan is that if all the states had gotten their stuff together in the way, like a Texas and Florida did, and they had announced all the election votes on election night and announced Biden would win, there would be a different opinion. [4][5] Cahaly's prediction of a Trump victory proved to be wrong, with him (and Trafalgar) incorrectly predicting Trump victories in five battleground states won by Biden.[6]. In Michigan, you had Tudor Dixon beating Gretchen Whitmer by one percent, and she ended up losing by 12. I said long questionnaires, however, do not represent average voters. I dont care whether they turn out or not. For the first time two of the nation's most accurate national polling firms in 2020 have teamed up, this time to survey the state in which both are headquartered: Georgia. He drew attention in the aftermath of the election, in which Trafalgar had been one of the only polling firms to predict Donald Trump's victory over Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election. In the photo above, voters stand in line to cast their ballots during the first day of early voting in the Georgia Senate runoffs at Lenora Park in Atlanta, Georgia, on December 14, 2020. "Watch the weather. I know everything you know looks like just a Republican landslide, but a lot of things can happen. Yet it may not be a loss for the left. You can get really bogged down in who says what. That number is nearly 700,000 early votes shy of the number reported one week prior to the general election, the website's analysis said. Your polling results this year were a lot less accurate than they were in 2020. You've successfully subscribed to this newsletter! Robert Cahaly is one of the best pollsters in the business. He offered gold-wrapped candy bars in a stunt that showed he isnt a worthy successor to his dad. Republican turnout will exceed even what we predict. Bret Baier of FOXNews said Trafalgar really nailed a lot of these states with their polling. [1] Cahaly founded Trafalgar Group in 2016. You're getting super-billionaire donors to dump millions and millions of dollars in negative ads against me to prop up your election because you gave them a fake poll. On Sunday, November 6th, 2016, two days before the presidential election, Robert Cahaly, Senior Strategist and Pollster of Atlanta-based Trafalgar Group, bet the future of his company on his teams unorthodox polling methodologywhen national reporters asked if he would stand by his polling results showing a clear 300+ Trump victory, effectively rejecting the industry consensus of a large significant Hillary Clinton electoral win, he didnt back down, hedge his bets, or equivocate. "I also think the Republicans in many ways feel a little bit backed into a corner, and are therefore also motivated," Cahaly continued. There were people- I had friends that were actually working for him who didn't put a sticker on their car because of where they parked at night. All market data delayed 20 minutes. Trafalgar Group's polling also found the races close through December but said Perdue and Loeffler were both leading their competitors by December 18, with Loeffler maintaining a stronger edge over Warnock than Perdue held over Ossoff. When Will Biden Announce His Re-Election Bid? That is the margin he needs to avoid what they will systematically do. For pollster Robert Cahaly, producing illuminating surveys and with accurate results is more important than party politics. Sure, but thats a presidential election.But 2018 will likely be no comparison to this one. This obviously is not an exact science, all this stuff. The more people feel the poll was anonymous, the more honest they're going to be. I mean, you know, God forbid, some kind of terrorism, and there's so many things that can completely derail what people expect to happen in politics. Cahaly accurately predicted a close gubernatorial race in the deep blue stronghold of New York, a race Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul won by 6 points, and he was shockingly close to the final results in statewide races in Wisconsin, Missouri, North Carolina and Georgia. What was surprising was the inclusion of Doug . ', Senior strategist at the Trafalgar Group Robert Cahaly estimated what pollsters keep getting wrong and the reason behind under-reporting GOP support on "Unfiltered with Dan Bongino.". Robert C. Cahaly is an American pollster and founder of the Trafalgar Group. Powered and implemented by FactSet Digital Solutions. Everyone knows that approximately 99% of polls are fake. We just put out our numbers as we have them. In the lead-up to the 2020 presidential election, Cahaly defied the polling consensus and predicted Trump to win reelection, only for him to incorrectly predict the result in five battleground states won by Biden. Trading Changes in the Economy Using the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), What You Need to Know About Trading 'Zero-day' Options, Prediction Markets for Prescient Political Punters, Trading the Slowdown in Interest Rates Hikes, Pairs Trading All-time Highs in the FTSE 100. It would take wins from Raphael Warnock, the Democrat challenging Loeffler, and Jon Ossoff, the Democrat challenging Perdue, for the party to claim 50 seats in the Senate. And so we're going to do a bigger survey. "We were very pleased with how close we were across the board," Cahaly said, pointing to the presidential election in Wisconsin and the Senate race in North Carolina as examples of where Trafalgar Group's predictions were especially close. 00:00 00:00. In addition to his questions surrounding the Democratic-leaning voting bloc and the determination driving both parties to urge high voter turnout, Cahaly said he will also keep an eye on a less emotional factor next week: the weather. A significant part of Cahaly's belief in his polling results is tied to the anonymous poll respondent strategy Trafalgar Group uses. Cahalys portfolio spans three decades and 22 states with success at all levels of politics and public relations. Early voting aside, Cahaly said Perdue and Loeffler will still need voters to turn out on January 5 to keep the edge that his polling suggests. During the last presidential . On the gubernatorial ticket, Trafalgar predicted Heidi Ganahl would run incumbent Democrat Jared Polis to single digits. They were called wackos and way out there, yet they were the closest. The Hill magazine named The Trafalgar Group as Winner on Winners and losers from 2020s election article. He was previously a political consultant for Republican Party candidates. This isnt apples to apples. 2023 FOX News Network, LLC. This is the new reality of midterms theres high turnout, ever since Trump.But even 2018 was no comparison to 2020. "I think that will lead to significant voter participation. It's gonna show that we're neck and neck, or shows that Lee Zeldin's beating me today. . The charges were subsequently dismissed in October 2012. Before you place any more political bets, check out pollster Robert Cahaly of Trafalgar Group's explanation of why he beat his polling peers in the past two . For simplicity, the examples and illustrations in these articles may not include transaction costs. And they're just not in the top five [of issues for voters]. At this point I think it's fair to say that Biden's pursuit of and attacks on "MAGA Republicans" has created an army of. About almost everything. ", What Trump voters in 2020 think about election security: "I believe they think it's everything, the entire spectrum. So I mean, these things can happen. It was different You have to be willing to recognize that the world is changing and people's attitudes change We really like different collection methods like we use tax, we use emails, online platforms so we can mix all of those with live calls and get a really good sense. It's hard to find another pollster who agrees with him. In 2016 and 2020, Trafalgar Group did what many more other pollsters could not: come close to accurately portraying Americas support for Donald Trump. Born in rural Georgia, Robert Cahaly was raised in Pendleton, South Carolina, and began his work in politics at age 10 campaigning door-to-door for a local county race. The Trafalgar Group's polling numbers were mostly inaccurate of in the 2022 United States midterm elections. tweeted Matt McDermott, a Democratic strategist, on election night. But it seemed like turnout was good generally, right? Perfect example look at New Hampshire. How does this all accord with what youve said about submerged Republicans, who dont want to speak with pollsters and are being underestimated by polls? HANNITY OUTLINES WHAT'S MOTIVATING MIDTERM VOTERS AHEAD OF NOVEMBER. And even the races we lost, we had all of those within two or three points. Plays Incompetent Willy Wonka at CPAC. In New Hampshire, Don Bolduc was supposed to win by 1 point. I mean, we lived in a world where everybody knew somebody who was for Trump, who didn't want to have a sign in their yard. By submitting your email, you agree to our Terms and Privacy Policy and to receive email correspondence from us. All this doesnt give you too much pause going forward?If all the other mainstream pollers could fail much worse than anything that happened to us this year, I dont see how, when we have an average record so much better than them, we should stop because we had a bad cycle. Because it is not going to affect your behavior, then don't waste your money.'" Twitter. Cahaly has worked on campaigns for various Republicans, including governors Carroll Campbell, David Beasley, Mike Huckabee, Nikki Haley, Chris Christie, and Henry McMaster; US Senators Strom Thurmond, Bob Dole, Tim Scott, and Ben Sasse; and Presidents George H.W. Bush, George W. Bush, and Donald Trump. "You know, our premise is people lie, people lie to their doctor, they lie to their lawyer, they lie to their priest and all of a sudden they become Honest Abe when they take a poll? So we asked the question to ROBERT CAHALY of the Trafalgar Group, one of the great contrarians in the polling industry, and a rising star who has outperformed virtually every other pollster in recent elections. Legal Statement. ROBERT CAHALY: Absolutely. For live updates on the midterms, head over to Newsweek's Live Blog: Who Won the Midterm Elections 2022?Senate, House, Governor Results. This password will be used to sign into all, associate editor at Intelligencer who joined New York in 2017, The Pollster Who Predicted a Red Wave Explains Himself, Rick Scott Is Unfortunately Kind of Right About Novak Djokovic. According to a Newsweek review of two dozen polls Trafalgar conducted in the weeks prior to Election Day, just five correctly predicted the winner within the poll's final margin of error. Cahaly was born in Georgia and grew up in Pendleton, South Carolina, and received a Bachelor of Arts degree in political science from the University of South Carolina in 1995. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed. In 2016, conservative pollster Robert Cahaly and his newly created firm, the Trafalgar Group, became overnight sensations as one of the only polling firms to predict Donald Trump's victory over Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election. What I said was people who answer those polls who are Gen Z and millennials arent representative of average voters. You have your methodology, to collect and process your samples, and then you have the turnout, your model of whos going to vote. Fast forward six years, however, and Cahaly has emerged as one of this election cycle's most inaccurate forecasters following a series of incorrect forecasts of several battleground states in the 2022 midterms that were out of step with most mainstream pollsters. "'Like, do you really want to know?' And in a lot of these races where the GOP nominated fairly divisive, extreme figures, Democrats won some Republican votes.Theres no question about that. Yes, it was mostly lesser-known outfits in the last two or three weeks.And thats not necessarily our fault. Well, if I had to rank them, Id say Nevadas most likely to be Republican win. In the closing weeks of the campaign, Trafalgar was one of several conservative-leaning pollsters behind a dizzying number of battleground state polls that, in aggregate, appeared to indicate Republicans were in for a big night. A lot of things affect politics. Brian Kemp (R-GA) On Making Georgia A Electric Vehicle Manufacturing Powerhouse: Were Letting The Market Work, Brian Riedl Rips Bidens Student Loan Relief Program As It Heads To Supreme Court: Its Inflationary And It Hikes The Deficit, Bill Melugin: Were On Track This Fiscal Year To Hit Upwards Of 2.7 To 3 Million Migrant Encounters At Southern Border. If there's an ice storm on Election Day, it's going to be bad news for Republicans who are counting on Election Day turnout. And so they're definitely not where the voting electorate is. And I'm like, 'Would it change what you do? "This move has created a new type of voter that will be even harder to poll or even estimate. Robert Cahaly is a pollster who owns the Trafalgar Group which is an opinion polling and survey company. Fine. The Biden administration has essentially classified 'MAGA Republicans' as a threat to democracy marshaling federal law enforcement to focus on them," Cahaly wrote on Twitter. He was previously a political consultant for Republican Party candidates. Can you tell me that Saint Anselms College doesnt know what theyre doing? / CBS News. Were working up a statement, what were going to put out. So youre full speed into 2024. In the 2022 cycle, Cahaly and Trafalgar were most accurate or second most accurate in the following races: OH Gov, NV Gov, NC Sen, NH Gov, GA Gov and GA Sen Runoff and NY Gov. [12][bettersourceneeded], On November 3, 2010, Cahaly was arrested by the State Law Enforcement Division (SLED) and charged with making illegal robocalls. He failed to cite any . "So no legitimate media outlet is ever going to report a Trafalgar poll again, right?" This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, Cahaly's success continued in 2018, most conspicuously in Florida. You\'ll receive the next newsletter in your inbox. "We lived in a world where everybody knew somebody who was for Trump, who didn't want to have a sign in their yard," Cahaly said. November 10, 2018 Robert Cahaly, senior strategist for the Trafalgar Group, made a name for himself in 2016 by being the only pollster to correctly show Donald Trump with a lead in Michigan and. He lost handily. While many other polling organizations use live telephone polls, Cahaly said Trafalgar Group allows respondents to answer prompts without identifying them first. ROBERT CAHALY: We would just ask people, you know, how do you think your neighbors are voting? So we asked the question to ROBERT CAHALY of the Trafalgar Group, one of the great contrarians in the polling industry, and a rising star who has outperformed virtually every other pollster in recent elections.
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